The Ripple Effect: How the Gaza Deal Could Reshape the Middle East

While focused on Gaza, the 20-point peace plan proposed by President Donald Trump has the potential to create powerful ripple effects that could reshape the entire Middle East. The deal’s success or failure will reverberate far beyond the borders of the small coastal strip, impacting regional alliances and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
If Hamas accepts the deal and disarms, it would represent a major victory for the US-led diplomatic coalition, which includes Israel and key Sunni Arab states. This could solidify a growing anti-Iran axis in the region, as Hamas has historically been supported by Tehran. The marginalization of a major Iranian proxy would be a significant strategic blow to the Islamic Republic.
Conversely, a rejection of the deal followed by a new war could further destabilize the region. It could inflame public opinion in Arab countries, putting pressure on governments that have endorsed the plan. It could also risk drawing in other actors, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially leading to a wider regional conflagration.
The plan’s handling of the Palestinian statehood issue is also critical. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected it, the fact that it was included in a US proposal backed by Arab nations keeps the issue on the table. A successful deal could revive moribund discussions about a long-term political settlement.
Regardless of the outcome, the Gaza deal is a pivotal moment. It is forcing a realignment of interests and priorities across the Middle East, and its consequences will be felt for years to come.