“Will You Get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely Not”: Trump’s Own Prophecy

In a moment of characteristic bravado mixed with grievance, Donald Trump recently made a prediction about his own Nobel Peace Prize chances. After touting his peacemaking prowess, he told an audience, “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.” In this, experts say, Trump is likely correct: he will not win, though not for the reasons he thinks.
Trump’s statement frames the Nobel process as a biased system that is rigged against him, one that will overlook his tangible achievements in favor of an undeserving, politically correct candidate. This narrative resonates powerfully with his supporters and reinforces his image as an outsider battling a corrupt establishment.
However, Nobel watchers see a different reality. They agree with his conclusion—he won’t win—but their reasoning is based on a sober analysis of his record against the prize’s criteria. They argue he will be overlooked not because of bias, but because his entire approach to global affairs is antithetical to the prize’s core mission of fostering “fraternity between nations.”
His dismissal of multilateralism, his denial of climate change, and his divisive rhetoric are all cited as fundamental disqualifiers. As historian Theo Zenou noted, the qualities of a laureate—being a “bridge-builder” who embodies “reconciliation”—are “not words we associate with Donald Trump.” It is this substantive misalignment, not a political conspiracy, that dooms his candidacy.
So, while Trump may be right that his name will not be called in Oslo, he misdiagnoses the cause. It will not be because the committee gave it to “some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.” It will be because they chose to give it to a laureate whose life’s work aligns with the values of peace, cooperation, and human fraternity that Donald Trump’s presidency so often challenged.