US Oil Prices Spike as Iran War Enters Its Most Consequential Week

The Iran war is entering what analysts describe as its most consequential week yet for global energy markets, and US oil prices are spiking accordingly as Monday arrives. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while $4 gasoline remains on the table. The cumulative impact of three weeks of conflict on oil infrastructure and shipping lanes is now being felt in full force by American consumers.
The conflict’s first shots were fired on February 28, when US and Israeli forces struck Iran, setting off an energy crisis that has progressively intensified. From below $3 per gallon before the war began, the national average has risen 23% to $3.70, and analysts suggest that the pace of increase may accelerate further as the conflict deepens. Three weeks of sustained military operations have stripped significant supply capacity from global oil markets.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, which attacked the heart of Iran’s oil processing and export network, marked a significant escalation in the targeting of energy infrastructure. Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has sustained the blockade of roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. Brent crude moved between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly reaching $100 the previous day.
California has borne the heaviest domestic price burden, with averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations charging over $8. Diesel for commercial transport could climb to $5.15 per gallon nationally. Senior executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each briefed White House officials on worsening supply conditions, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods issuing pointed warnings about both physical supply risks and the inflationary effect of speculative market trading.
Wall Street opened Monday with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising roughly 1% following a brief oil price softening. Oil company shares have hit record highs since the conflict began. If the third week proves as consequential as analysts expect, US oil prices could reach new territory that further deepens the economic pressure on American households.